WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT IN THE US:
· S&P +0.2%, traded another narrow session – at just over half-a-percent range, on track for flattest week of the year so far.
· Not much changed; Fed fund futures stayed just under 50% chance of a hike this year. USD back-foot and yield curve stayed flat.
· SAB ADR at £43.70, off lows after London close – on Bberg reports activist shareholder Elliott to back new offer - but in much quieter volume (<600k shs). NYSE’s $26.7bn, 10% below average in holiday trade.
WHAT’S UP THIS MORNING IN THE EAST:
· Japan clawing back some weekly losses. BoJ disappointed with rates on hold and total QE unchanged (at Y80trn/yr), but said it would double its equity purchases.
· But rest of region disappointed. Hong Kong -0.7%, around session lows (Tencent -0.6%), along with China. Copper & iron futures both off small.
· Australia +0.1%, kept afloat by consumer, but BHP -2.2% & Rio -2.2% both indicate London -1%.
SOUTH AFRICAN NEWS:
· Expect AllShare -0.25%. From SA close yday, gold -$2 ($1335), plat unch ($1137), copper -0.5% ($2.20/lb), oil -0.8% ($42.60), USDZAR -0.8% (14.12), S&P +0.4%.
· BGA: H1 dil hEPS +7% to 857c in line with vs sbge FY est (1700c), pre-provision profit +19.1% was well ahead. BUT results a story of credit impairments - overall up +46% (to R5.2bn) ie credit loss ratio 1.29% (from 0.97%) – on higher charges across Home Loans (+77%), and Retail Business & Banking (+21%). NPLs up to 3.8% (from 3.5%) and portfolio provisions now 0.72% of performing loans (from 0.65%).
· LBH: H1 BEE norm hEPS -8% at 650c. New business (R257m) and new business margin (1.4%) - both down y/y and below consensus estimates.
· Municipal elections on Weds will see ANC hold a majority in 3 of 8 national metros (eThekwini/Buffalo City/Mangaung) and probably a 4th (Ekurhuleni), but they will slip below 50% in Joburg, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay where they will need to form local coalitions to hang on to power. The DA will easily hold Cape Town. Nationally, we expect ANC to shed 3-6% of its popular vote (to take it below 60% for the first time) to the benefit of DA (28% from c22%) and EFF (to c8-10%). Results will be highly contested, with election run-up having been characterised by political violence, whilst voters roll is known to be deeply compromised. IEC will have its work cut out and its credibility will be intensely scrutinised. Following a poor showing at the polls, we expect Zuma to retain the party presidency (until the end of 2017), but his remaining time in office will be marked by a sustained hemming of his executive power. Our base case remains that he will not see out the full term of state presidency (to 2019).
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:
· 8am: Germany June Retail Sales
· 10.30am: UK June net lending
· 11am: Eurozone Q2 GDP (+0.3% q/q), July CPI (+0.1% y/y)
· 2pm: SA June Trade Bal (+R7.2bn)
· 2.30pm: US Q2 GDP anlsd first read (+2.5% q/q)
· 4pm: US July Uni of Mich Consumer confidence final read