WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT IN THE US:

·         S&P -0.6%, sank again late – back to negative territory for the week - as early relief gave way to renewed China concerns.

·         Bright start followed White House confirmation that auto tariffs on imports from EU and Japan would be postponed.

·         But CNBC later reported China talks “in flux”. China ETF -1.7%, had been on its way to grinding back to flat. Soybeans -2.1%, closed lows.

·         Resources best of bad bunch. Vale +0.7%, took the positives from iron ore up through $100/t after confirming tailings dam problems (at unproductive) Gongo Soco.  

 SOUTH AFRICAN NEWS:

•         Expect AllShare -0.25%. From SA close, S&P -0.8%, gold unch ($1276), plat +$4 ($823), pall unch ($1319), copper unch ($2.73/lb), oil +0.8% ($73.17), Dalian iron -0.5% ($101), Dalian coal +0.4%, steel rebar -0.2%, BHP +1.25%, USDZAR +0.1% (14.40), Tencent -2.6% (HKD 346).

•         Also from SA close; ANG +2.4% (ADR R166.60), ANH -0.3% (ADR R1194), BTI +0.2% (ADR R543.30), CFR -0.6% (ADR R103.42), GFI +0.9% (ADR R52.45), GLN +0.5% (Ldn R50.75), MEI +0.3% (Ldn R62.50), SGL +1% (ADR R11.67), SOL -0.3% (ADR R428.70).

•         SGL: in statement says it “notes the press speculation [around LON shareholders’ dissatisfaction around the recent improvement to offer terms] and in accordance with the UK Takeover Code, confirms that the Increased Offer is final and will not be increased.”

•         BAW: H1 norm hEPS +14.1% at 521.4c with Equip “strong” (southern Africa revs +15.7%, op profit +9.8%; Russia up “slightly” in ZAR), Automotive ok (op margin 6.2% from 5.7%) and Logistics “adverse” impacts from various one-offs (revs -3.3%).

•         Due this week: tmrrw March Leading Indicator; Weds April CPI; Thurs SARB announces rates.

•         SA earnings ahead: this week CML (H1), RFG (H1), TBS (H1), LEW (FY), TFG (FY), MDC (FY); next week TKG (FY), RLO (H1), PPH (H1), FBR (FY), NPK (H1), MRP (FY).

·         Zimbabwe will be “drawing down” $500m in loans from international banks today according to weekend tweets from Central Bank governor John Mangudya (& Fin Min Mthuli Ncube) - to be used to supply the interbank market in an effort to “stabilize…exchange rates and prices of goods and services”. With paralysis since RTGS was ‘floated’ in Feb, the OMIR (Old Mutual implied rate) has spiked to nearly 8-1 vs official just outside 3-1. But in absence of a Reserve Bank circular – and given previous false starts - it’s unclear whether there will be effective 2-way convertibility. Mangudya’s tweet claims funds will be used to “meet the forex payment requirement of business and individuals", though that does not seem to specify investors whose trapped USDs run into hundreds of millions and have remained backlogged for months of even years.

•         China -1.3%, opened lower and bumping along lows – but so far largely contained. S&P futures +0.3%.  

•         India +2.4%, cheering exit polls showing victory for incumbent Nahrendra Modi. Australia +1.7%, cheering surprise election victory for ruling centre-right coalition.

•         BHP -0.6%, got some of the benefit of higher iron ore prices on Friday – but still indicates our open up 1.25%. Rio +1%, also looking higher.

TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:

•         2.30pm: US April Chicago Fed Activity Index