WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT:
· S&P +1.1%, took rising yields in its stride, back within touching reach of record highs
· DXY> 90 near 3 year low, UST10 yr >1.40%; spiked early in the session, but equities were unnerved. Powell emphasised the view that the economy has a “long way to go” and inflation concerns are unwarranted.
· Brent> $67, lifted energy stocks +3.7%, followed by Financials & IT +2% a piece, but Gold>$1800 losing favour to rising yields.
· Asia’s upbeat taking lead from US Futures, and weaker dollar
· NKY +1.6%, China +1.6%, still down 12% post lunar year selloff, HK +2%, Tencent +2%
· Positive moves in overnight commodities adding to the sentiment, copper $10 shy of all time high. PGMs take a leg up on Norilsk suspension of 2 mines due to operational problems.
· Australia +0.8%; materials back in control, financials not too far behind, RIO+1.9%, FMG+3.1% BHP +3.2%, indicates SA open +3.5%.
What else of interest?
· IMP: looks solid - no payout disapp here (that we saw with AMS, SSW). H1 hEPS +328% as guided, div 1000c = 40% FCF vs policy 30%. FY prod tweaked up to 3.2-3.46moz (vs 2.8m-3.4moz), cash costs tweaked lower at top-end R14600-15100/oz (vs 14500-15500) and capex down to R5.8bn-6.2bn (vs R6-6.75bn) shld continue to free up FCF
· PGM prices on the move again last night on Norilsk suspension of 2 mines due to operational problems. No duration guided but we understand these produce as much as 10% global palladium & rhodium supply (& 5% plat).
· SSW: reminder MSCI FIF upweight tmrrw cob (0.95x from 0.85x).
· WHL: 1H Adjusted HEPS +19.4%, within guidance. No dividend declared. Group sales +5.3% and -0.5% in constant currency terms. This reflects improved trading momentum across all businesses over the final six weeks of the reporting period.
SOUTH AFRICAN NEWS:
Expect JSE AllShare +1%.
· From SA close yday, S&P +1.5% (futs +1.7%), gold +14$ ($1800), plat +$21 ($1270), pall +$74 ($2437), copper +3.8% ($4.35/lb), Brent crude +1.5% ($67.39), Dalian iron +2.9% (172=spot $/t), Singapore iron +2.2% ($170), Dalian coking coal unch, BHP parity +3.5%, USDZAR +0.8% (14.49), Tencent +2% (HKD700 ).
· Also due today: 11:30AM: PPI MoM
· IMP H1, DSY H1, WHL H1, JSE FY, DGH H1, KAP H1,
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:
Global data – today
· 11:00AM:EC M3 Money Supply, EC Consumer Conf
· 03:30PM US Initial Jobless Claims, US 4Q GDP
Global data – week ahead
· Fri (Feb 26): France PPI, France CPI, German Retail Sales
· Mon (Mar 1): UK Markit PMI Manu, German CPI, France Markit PMI Manu, US ISM Manuf
· Tues (Mar 2): German Unemployment, EC CPI
SA – week ahead
· Fri (Feb 26):M3 Money Supply, Trade Balance, Private Sector Debt, MNK Q3, CLH H1, BLU H1
· Mon (Mar 1): Absa Manuf PMI, MST H1, DST H1, HYP H1
· Tues (Mar 2): RCL H1, SHG FY, FVT H1, SUR H1, WBO, H1
· Weds (Mar 3): Standard Bank PMI, RBP FY, CSB H1, ARI, H1
· Thurs (Mar 4): Electricity Consumption, MTM H1, SAC FY, FSR H1, SNT FY
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