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WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT IN THE US:
- S&P -1.5% on Friday, found base again at 2470 (though never enough fight to avoid a 5th weekly loss in 7).
- Data disaster (March Payrolls -701k, Unemployment 4.4%) though limited reverberation through market indicators.
- US10yr remained rooted sub 0.60%; gold >$1620. DXY climbed again though no fresh signs of stress in EURUSD swap basis.
- Fed announced a further tapering of purchases to $50bn/day (from $60bn, $75bn prior week) with cumulative March-to-date at $1trn.
- But oil focus (>$34 vs mid-week low $24.50) on White House attempts to broker Saudi-Russia deal. OPEC+ meeting provisionally scheduled for Monday (today), moved to April 9.
- Asia in the green – for those markets that are open. Closed today for national holidays China, India, Thailand.
- Japan +3.1%, despite Tokyo cases surge and reports of looming lockdown. Korea +3.5% on slowing infection; Hong Kong +2.2%.
- Australia +4.4%, closed at day’s high. BHP +4.4%, indicates SA +3%.
SOUTH AFRICAN NEWS:
· Fitch d/grade on Friday after hrs to BB – ie 2 notches into junk (one below Moody’s and S&P) with a negative outlook. We expected this and also expect S&P to downgrade SA at its review next month, but it fuels investors’ long-standing concern that SA is heading for a debt trap. Fitch indicated they will downgrade again if trend growth falls further or no “clear and credible” expectation of a stabilisation of government debt
TODAYS KEY DATA POINTS:
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